4月10日GMAT作文真题

为了更好帮大家备考GMAT，留学监理网的老师来给大家分享一份论坛上面4月10日GMAT考场回顾。希望可以对大家有所帮助。

第一宗罪:无因果联系

The author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. The line of the reasoning is that because A occurred before B, the former event is responsible for the latter. (The author uses the positive correlation between A and B to establish causality. However, the fact that A coincides with B does not necessarily prove that A caused B.) But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps C is the cause of these events or perhaps B is caused by D.

第二宗罪 Insufficient-sample

The evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it. One example is logically unsounded to establish a general conclusion (The statistics from only a few recent years are not necessarily a good indicator of future trends), unless it can be shown thatA1 is representative of all A. It is possible that.... In fact, in face of such limited evidence, the conclusion that B is completely unwarranted.

第三宗罪: 错误类比 (based on a false analogy )<横向>

The argument rests on the assumption that A is analogous to B in all respects. This assumption is weak, since although there are points of comparison between A and B, there are much dissimilarity as well. For example, A..., however, B.... Thus, it is likely much more difficult for B to do....

第四宗罪 all things are equal<纵向>

The author commits the fallacy of “all things are equal”. The fact that happened two years ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that.... The author assumes without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or at different locations. However, it is not clear in this argument

whether the current conditions at AA are the same as they used to be two years ago. Thus it is impossible to conclude that....

第五宗罪 Either-Or choice

The author assumes that AA and BB are mutually exclusive alternatives and there is no room for a middle ground. However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either-or choice. Common sense tells us that adjusting both AA and BB might produce better results.

第六宗罪 survey is doubtful

The poll cited by the author is too vague to be informative. The claim does not indicate who conducted the poll, who responded, or when, where and how the poll was conducted. (Lacking information about the number of people surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to access the validity of the results. For example, if 200 persons were surveyed but only 2 responded, the conclusion that...would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out this kind of interpretations,). Until these questions are answered, the results of the survey are worthless as evidence for the conclusion.

第七宗罪 gratuitous assumption

The author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that.... However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. In fact, this is not necessarily the case. For example, it is more likely that.... Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibility.

1.三明治店

本月原始 一个在大学里卖三明治的，去年销量不错，然后他说准备开三家新店，三家新店的manager也是自从他开店以来一直跟着他的三个人，所以这三个店一开，利润就会triple。。。槽点挺多 考古 V1一个人（名字记不住）在城城镇开了家Pita店，那个城镇是个大学城，辣味的卖的好，收入翻了倍于是，店主打算在周围的城镇在开三家新店，并亲自培训将负责的三名员工。他觉得新开的三家店会导致profit将会triple。 V2 作文是说George在一个叫S的地方开了一家三明治点， 卖的很好， S这个镇有很多学生。因为店开的很成功，所以GEORGE决定在附近的town开三家新的店， 他会训练三个人开新店， 做一个spicy sandwiches,他认为开3家新店能triple profits 考古原题 感谢GhostaNdrop The argument was about a paragraph from a restaurant business newsletter about small franchise restaurants. A small restaurant owner, George, opened a pita restaurant in a college town Sallon. His restaurant has been quite successful for the last 2 years. So he decided to open another 3 restaurants in nearby cities and towns. He also plans to promote his 3 employees who have been trained under him to be the managers of the new restaurants. He expects his profits will triple after all restaurants are opened. 参考思路 1. 因果关系：多开餐馆跟利润上升之间无必然关系。很可能现在有很多类似的竞争对手，快餐店的食品、服务和卫生也必要考虑的因素。 2. 错误比较：在这卖的好其他地方不一定地点变化，是不是可以保证新开每家店会不会取得以往相同的利润。注意，学校这个关键因素，学校可以保证一个地方充足的客源，但是其他地方没有信息说明该地方有类似的客源。 3. 无根据假设：三个老员工未必能做经理，他们可能是很好的厨师或是收银员，但完全没有管理经验，很可能管理失误，犯下大错，然后赔本关门，甚至把老店也赔进去。 4.思路: (1)对比性不充分. 因为大学生的生活作息,可能偏爱这种快餐便捷又平价的小吃店, 周边城市人口组成会不一样. 比如以老年人为主, 或者富人居住区, 就会少有顾客来吃pita. (2)员工提拔成为经理,需要慎重.好的雇员不一定当的了好老板. (3)利润涨三倍, 明显缺乏数据和分析, 盲目乐观oversimplify.

2.政府盖楼

本月原始 作文是上个月关于过去十年4%rental units增长和94%的租房率，然后表明这个地方经济很好，外地人也要过来住什么的。所以让公司财务总监盖两个楼，这两个楼就完全覆盖4%，又由于需求肯定增长所以公司一定盈利。 攻击点 1 过去增长不意外以后增长 所以需求不能保证 2 租房子不表明这个地方经济好吸引外地人 还是说需求不能保证 3 就算需求增长了 如果有其他公司也盖房子 那么还是会有超额供给导致市场价格下降 4 盖房子成本可能很高啊 不一定盈利啊 5 4% 94%怎么来的啊 是不是可信啊 考古 【1】 AWA是说一个房地产老总说city过去十年租房率每年增长4%，occupancy rate维持在92%，说明未来经济继续增长并吸引大量外来人口。所以他决定明年公司建两栋楼用来出租。单单这两栋楼不考虑外来竞争者和别的建造商就能达到4%的增长，并且能保证房屋的occupancy rate，所以公司这个举措将带来巨大利润。 【2】一道关于Rental Unit上升,occupation rate上升，然后决定要再建2个building complex的那道题 【3】 一个城市的出租房在过去10年增加了4 %的数量，但是居住率还是维持在92%这么高的水平，认为将来租房需求强劲。一个地产公司因此决定在未来盖两栋大楼，这样就能提升利润。 【4】 一家地产公司（Rental Unit Company）的CEO给CFO写的信： 本市的出租房（Rental Unit）总数量在过去10年都以每年4%的速度增长，而且occupancy rate一直都保持在92%，这可以说明本市在未来会经济更加繁荣，而且对于new residence的吸引力（Attractiveness）会更高。因此我决定明年要启动建造两栋新的appartment building来出租，这两栋building能cover增长的那4%的份额，因此一定能够给公司带来更多的profit 思路比较容易找啦： 1. 过去10年的数据is limited whthin the time range in the past, 不能说明未来还会持续 2. 经济繁荣以及对新居民的吸引力要看很多的因素，只通过租房数据来判断显然忽略了其他的因素 3. 新盖两栋房子把那4%的growth都占了，意味着一旦其他公司也新建，市场竞争就会很激烈，不一定能赚钱 4. profit的老生常谈啦，要看revenue－cost的具体数字 参考思路 1.数据有效性：4%和90%的数据是哪里得出的，没有提到其他任何可参考的东西。

2.错误因果：rental units 的增长和rental units的占有率并不代表经济就是发展迅速，房地产

市场繁荣。可能和房价等其他因素相关。 3.无根据假设：没有提到建造buiding的cost等因素，无端假设说建造两个buiding就可以填补4%的空缺。 4. profit的老生常谈啦，要看revenue－cost的具体数字 5. 过去10年的数据is limited whthin the time range in the past, 不能说明未来还会持续

3.新开三家药店

本月原始 （CARE94）H在A地做了研究后，建议在A新开三家药店。K 拥有A地最大的顾客群，H认为通过正在K的location附近开新店可以抢到K的顾客群，因为他们有大量的供应，因而可以通过低价竞争成为行业领先者。 考古 V1是说一个做药的公司想在一个城市去开店，那个城市已经有一个老店了而且很受当地人欢迎，过去几年也有几个公司在当地开过药店。为了与那个老店竞争，这个公司决定在那个老店开店的旁边开店来吸引老店的longtime customers，这样它在不久之后就能在当地的药店中成为leading postion。 V2讲A市的两个制药公司 - Holner's 和 Kirby Drug。 Kirby Drug拥有A市的最大客源并且顾客都是长期忠实的顾客。多年前KD第一间店开在市中心 几年时间内又在其他3个不同的地方开了不同的分店。Holner's的Vice President认为Holner's应该效仿KD的这个模式 把H打算开的分店都开在有KD分店的地方 （潜在信息: 有KD分店的地方就拥有大量客源）, 这样KD的长期客户们就会放弃KD而购买H的药品 因为H的售价比KD的低很多 原因是H作为national brand可以从supplier那里以低价采购更多。Holner's认为这个策略可以让Holner's很快成为A市的药店老大 这篇是考察reasoning 狗主觉得还是挺好答的 1）KD当年选址开分店的地方是综合了那些地方的各项因素 比如几年前那些地方租金较低 人口特别是老龄化人口多 （老年人通常需要买更多的药）等等， 但几年前的情况不等于现在的情况。 现在的那些地方可能租金上涨，而A市里可能还有其他地方的老年人多过那三个地方。H选址开分店的时候不应该只参照KD的分店地址 而应该综合评估 2）长期忠实于KD的客户肯定是看重KD产品的质量 药效 还有KD的服务等其他因素 价钱并不能作为单一决定性因素 而因为KD的药品质量等各方面都很好 顾客并不会介意KD的价钱高并且会继续购买。 H的VP只因为H的价钱比KD的高就有信心把KD的顾客源都吸引过来是unreasonable的 参考思路 1. 错误类比：两家虽然都是药店，但是两家药店的影响因素并不一样。K药店是local store，而h药店是连锁的，如果将k药店的strategy用到h药店上未必会获得居民的欢迎。

2. 另有他因：lower price on national brands不是决定药店销量的唯一因素。 3. 无端假设： h药店计划在k药店的三个store附近新开三家，并且提供lower price on national brands， 但这个措施并不一定能吸引k药店的longtime customer。

4.cookville factory

本月原始 上月cookville那篇，有原文。 考古 V1（by R_V）“Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.” V2 作文是那个Cookville工场的产量比别的工场多，然后建议说只要Cookville生产那种零件可以将全部费用降到最低。 考古原题 AWA题库 The following appeared in a presentation by the chief production manager of a machine parts manufacturing company at a management meeting: “Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.” Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc. 参考思路

1. 方案置疑:although C produce more bits per dollar, the reason may be that C has high- skilled workers, total new and high- quality machines, or less amounts of orders thus entirely shifting is fallacious, the results may be that the workers may be too tired and have too much burden, the

machines would be worn out, and all this could contribute to the lowering of the productivity. 2. 充分必要条件:The only way to reduce costs is to reduce production costs: the management assumes without further more evidence that reducing the productions costs is the only way to enhance cost-effective production process: 可以 train workers , 引进 new technologies, 定期维修老旧设备,提高 management strategy.. 3. Gratuitous assumption:shifting the production of the other parts to other factories is the appropriate way to go 也许转移制造之后 cargo and transporting fees would roar 因为 sporadically 分布的工厂可以及时供货,集中在一个地方不利于供货,而且 shifting 牵扯 到搬家的费用,都是 huge expense, may not weigh over the elevation of the productivity 4. Gratuitous assumption:Coikville factory entirely to drill bit production will reduce our overall drill bit production cost. Perhaps, there are only one or several skilled workers who are can product them drill bits for each dollar of production cost. And they have already reached their full potential. 5. 没有考虑 production process as a whole。举例:可能生产过程和装配过程要联系很密切, 如果把其他环节放到别的 factory 会出问题。

5.投资房产

本月原始 一个地产经纪的brochure 说房价过去五年一直在涨 股市在跌 因此投资房市是最好的选择 而且买房后自己住还同时享受了投资 投资股市却没有同样的享受。 考古 V1（by zz68）a real estate agent mentioned the below: "Over the last five years, the housing prices in our city have doubled. During the same time, the stock market has fallen. So now it is a good time for the city residents to buy houses as an investment. In additional, home owners can also live in the houses they bought and that can improve one's quality of life, whereas there is no such similar benefit if one buys stocks." V2一个城市的房管局之类的说，因为过去五年的平均房价涨了一倍但是股票平均价下降了所以预计未来五年也会是这样的情况，而且如果买房子的话可以享受到使用房子的价值，这是投资股票不能带来的。结论是，大家都应该去投资房产。 答主的攻击点是：平均不能真正反映房产和股票的价格情况；过去五年的情况并不能一定保证未来五年也是同样；人们在买到房子后就会习惯拥有房子，不会持续感受到使用房子的快乐。

6.投放广告

本月原始 作文：讲的是一个叫啥Motor的公司要投放广告，一个是在social networking websites上面，一个是advertisement on TV and radio。其中social networking websites，是做一个survey，说有90%的user说他们不会因为这样的广告就去买他们公司的产品。另一个方法advertisement on TV and radio是投放了这种广告以后，sales rise 15%。于是得出结构说应该多讲钱放在advertisement on TV and radio上，减少social networking websites上的投资。 考古 坐稳：似曾相识，求考古。一家公司认为online ads没有 television ads and radio ads 有效（effective）。因为他们做了一个survey, 90%的 website users 表示他们不会因为网站上有某个产品的广告而去买这个产品。过去一年里， 这家公司的online ads 的销售额比TV 和radio ads的销售额少。为了提高利润，这家公司决定discontinue online ads, increase the investment in TV and radio ads。 楼主思路： 1. survey 的结果并不可靠。Websit eusers 不能代表所有customers 2.过去一年的情况不一定与未来情况一样。你怎么就知道未来online ads销售额比TV and radio ads少？ 3. Profit 取决于 revenue 和cost。 我们并不知道cost的情况。 V2：同JJ 13. 广告投放 V3: motorcycle 做广告，说是ads on social websites are not effective, ads on television and radio are much better. 举了个例子，有一年在television和radio的做完广告以后，sales增长了13%，所以television &radio的广告有用。结论，为了最大化profit，我们要把放在website上的广告budget都转移到television radio的广告上(by anqihuang0524) 古中古 V1 Argument：一个motorcycle manufacturing company的market analyst表示advertising on social networking websites has been inefficient. In a survey of ONE such website users, 他们说他们不会看了website上的广告买产品。而advertising on television and radio(?) 更有用。公司在某个城市打television和radio广告的那一年，sales of motorcycles rose 15%. In order to earn more PROFIT, 这个analyst认为公司应该discontinue advertising on social networking websites, 将这个的budget用在在television和radio的广告上。 V2 变体 就是motorcycle那个，不过我这个有点变形，他说的是出现了一种新形势的radio广告，导致profit停止上升，题目里说是应该少投入newspaper上的广告，多做radio的广告。 V3 Market researcher就网络广告的评估写信给 head of advertisement department：

A survey on a website shows that no customers bought products because of these advertisement. On the other hand, in the past, advertisement on TV and radio boosted sales by over 15%. In

order to increase profitability, the advertisement department should allocate more funds on TV and radio, instead of on online social media. V4 the head of marketing department of motorcycle company have done a research on social networking websites. It is said that 90% of the people on one social networking website claim that the advertisement on the website will not lead them to buy specific product online. Also, another survey suggest that after the television and radio ads, there was 15% increase in sale. So it is reasonable to disregard the ads on social networking website and put more budget on the tel 参考思路 1. 可疑调查：一个survey of such website，没有指出这个调查的任何其他情况，survey的methodology很可疑, 只有70%？的网站用户不会去点击那个小广告从而sell specific product，这个survey的调查结果是否准确；这个survey的调查结果是否准确。 2. 因果关系-错误因果：70%的网站用户不会去点击那个小广告从而sell specific product不代表广告没有效果，很可能那30%点击广告的人都是潜在客户，并且绝大多数点击广告的人都会买他们的产品。【这个是考古的思路，本月构筑给的是90%，考试时看原题】 3. 因果关系-忽略他因：之前那一年提高了15%还是25%的sale不一定是在radio和television上做过广告造成的，还可能是其他原因，比如那一年油价便宜导致很多人买车等。 4. 错误比较-时地全等：之前有一年就在radio和television上做过广告并且效果很不错不代表现在在radio和television上做广告效果也不错，很可能现在做广告根本没人关注。 5. sales的上升不代表利润的上升，很可能expense早就花超了，就算是上升了，也有可能lower than that of other companies

7.Olympic foods

本月原始 The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods. “Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984.The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.” 参考思路 1. 错误类比：The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry. 食品行业与彩色胶片行业不能等同。

2. 因果关系——忽略他因：Other factors that may contribute to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out. 彩色胶片例子中的成本降低不一定是因为组织学习

增加效率，还可能是技术改进、原料价格下降、福利增加激励员工等。 3. 无根据假设：The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years. 因为 (1)不是有经验就可以节约成本 (2)不是cost下降profit就会增加，只有在销量不减少或者增加的情况下才成立 参考范文 Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the author’s rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws. First, the author’s forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods’ “long experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded. Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future. As it stands the author’s argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author’s view.

8. citrus price

本月原始

讲的是citrus growers inflate prices, because the price of lemons has been increasing in the past eleven years, but only one year was due to weather conditions. The conclusion is actions are needed to prevent citrus growers from continuing to increase prices of citrus. 考古原题 (OG13第91) The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper: "Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 15 cents a pound for lemons, but today it commonly charges over a dollar a pound. In only one of these last 11 years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices." Discuss how well reasoned ... etc. 参考思路 1. Causal oversimplification：天气并不是唯一影响因素，比如环境保护，加工价格上升，人力成本上升，或者通货膨胀，Monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions the growers’desire for increased profits. 2. 充分条件: Only way to combat increased price is through government intervention. 3. 无关假设：天气好 果树的产量一定高。因为种植柑橘的农民已经动用了可用的资源了，产量无法再多 4. 错误类别 or Hasty generalization：柠檬是不是可以橘类水果类比，或者说，柠檬有其特殊性，譬如柠檬都是进口的，比较贵。 参考例文 In this editorial the author argues for the imposition of strict pricing regulations in order to deal with continued inflation of prices of citrus fruit. The need for such regulation is supported by the author’s contention that citrus growers have been unnecessarily raising prices of citrus fruit in the past. The evidence for this allegation is the fact that the price of lemons at Megamart has increased from 15 cents per pound to over a dollar a pound during the preceding 11-year period. The author maintains that this increase is unjustifiable because weather conditions have been favorable to citrus production in all but one of those years. This argument is flawed for several reasons. First and foremost, the author assumes that the only factor that influences the price of citrus fruit is the weather. Other factors such as monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions are completely ignored as possible sources for the increase. The charge that citrus growers have unnecessarily raised prices can be sustained only if these and other possible factors can be completely ruled out as contributing to the price increases. Since the author fails to address these factors, the recommendation calling for strict pricing regulations can be dismissed out of hand as frivolous.

Second, the author assumes that the only way to combat increased prices is through government intervention. In a free enterprise system many other means of affecting the pricing of goods are available. For example, boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand

conditions of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product. In a free market economy the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to rectify the problem have been exhausted. In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to show that the only factor influencing the price increases is the growers’ desire for increased profits.（333 words）

9.建gym

本月原始 作文：一个公司做了个research说去健身房的人身体都健康一些，所以要建一个well-equipped gym，这样cost of health insurance降低了，还可以achieve town balanced budget 考古原题 The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager. “Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.” 参考思路 1. 可以调查：research的样本容量、统计标志都没有说明，无法保证研究结果具有一定的参考性。 2. 无根据假设：不一定提供了gym员工就会去锻炼，所以无法确保健康水平会提升。 3. 因果关系：(1) insuarnce针对的也许是emergency的情况，即使提高了健康水平也不能保证降低cost (2)不健康也许不是不运动导致的，也许那地方环境污染，水质不好空气不好等等。 参考范文 In this memo Saluda’s business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town’s budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town’s budget. The manager’s argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.

Firstly, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis. Secondly, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance. Thirdly, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim. Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager’s plan is unacceptable. In conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda’s budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.

10.咖啡店裁员

本月原始一个什么商店的profits下降了，但是鉴于sales一直很好，所以这家商店就想要cut costs：通过每家门店lay off 10个 employees来实现。还有它的主要定位客户是wealthy people，比较注重customer experiences。 然后第二个措施是和一家Cafe合作咖啡还是什么业务，理由是这家咖啡店吸引的客户是同一个类型的，所以应该能是profits上升。最后还提到了这家商店做了一个recent survey用来支持自己的决定。 我攻击的三点： 1减少员工人数会降低服务质量导致顾客流失。另有他因。 2 cost并不是利润下降的唯一原因。时空全等的错误。inflation和economic environment不好也可能。 3 survey的validity值得怀疑。可疑调查的错误。

11.航空公司减少航线

本月原始 作文：讲了一个P航空公司利润下降，虽然去年整个石油价格上升导致燃油成本上升，但其他航空公司也面临同样的问题可他们的利润并没有下降，而去年P航空公司新开通了一些航线到5个地方，因此肯定是新开通的航线导致P航空公司利润下降，因此得出结论航空公司应该取消这些航线。 考古 V1: AWA：说一个airline的analyst 发邮件给CEO说， 油价涨了不少，咱们成本提高了，去年的profit少了。不过呢，其他类似的很多航空公司也面临同样的油价，但有些公司利润提高了。这个analyst觉得， 应该是去年我们新加的几个addition的航线导致了profit降低。所以为了提升今年的profit，我们要把这些新加的航线取消。(by Scos) V2: 坐稳:一家航空公司利润下降，分析师说，一个原因是是汽油涨价，一个原因是新买了5架飞机。后来说汽油涨价没有引起其他飞机利润下滑，反而有飞机利润上升了，所以该公司利润下滑的原因是新增的5架飞机。所以分析师认为，如果要阻止利润的下滑就要减少那新增的飞机。V3: 航班减少那个。几经上有。 V4: 作文：P Airline的一个business analyst给CEO写email说咱公司去年的profit drop了20%+啊！宝宝很担心咱公司发展啊！今年年初咱还expand operation开了5个新航线！at the begining of the year油价还蹭蹭的涨，咱们fuel expenditure也蹭蹭的涨！但这并不是重点！其他competitor在这种情况下还increase profit了呢！所以问题一定出在这新加的几个小婊砸里面！so我们要斩草除根！eliminate这些新航线以后咱profit肯定蹭蹭的涨！ 这样的business analyst是怎么被录取的我真心是不懂了＝。＝正在找工作的我表示快开了这哥们儿换我上吧！！（<--一道题而已你在激动什么） 逻辑漏洞大的补不上，so大家就带着不屑的围笑写写就好了：）(By angelacheung) 疑似考古 This is a letter written by a business analyst sending to the CEO of the company.An Airline company has been through profit decrase. Recently the oil price has increase, but since other airplane company continue improving profit when oil price increase. To improve profit, the company have to cut its newly added flight routes。 Provincia Airline's profit decreased last year, analyst concluded: 1. oil price increase;2. new flights were added.Since other airlines also faced roaring oilprice, the reason why profits dropped down was the new flights.New flights should be elimated. 参考思路 1. 充分必要条件：flight expansion 是 profit 减少的唯一条件？也有可能是乘客减少。 2. 错误类比：其他公司 increase their profitability 不一定就是减少number of flight，也许是他们的服务更好，顾客更喜欢选择他们公司。 3. 无根据假设：Decrease flight expansion一定会使 profit上升？虽然减少航班数量，可以减少overall cost，但是 revenue from these flights 也是同样减少。

12.明星代言

本月原始 一名ceo说：在5年前他们找一位知名运动员来参加他们的advertising campaign结果有30%increase in sales，但是他们的销售已经两年没有增长了，他们的market research显示他们的主要客户是中年大叔。所以他打算找最流行的年轻爱豆来参加宣传，来开拓年轻人市场 考古 V1. Alpha cologne这个项目的Marketing Manager 一些提高销售量的建议：Alpha 这个项目在过去4年里享受了30%的销售增长，其广告靠的是运动员代言人。市场调查现实其消费群体主要是中年人及老年人，但在过去两年销售额没有明显的提升。为了提升销售额，应该扩大消费群体至年轻人。市场部经理提议应该雇佣流行音乐巨星D...Cleaver作为Alpha这个项目新的代言人，并把目标群体从传统的中老年变为新潮的年轻人。这样销售额可能就会增长了，因为每一个角落的年轻人都会知道这个项目。 V2. Company's cologne has experienced significant sales increase of 30% annually in the first four years of its launch. The company uses advertising campaign with professional sports stars and research found that most customers are middle-aged men. Cologne sale slowed down in recent years and CEO believes that they need to get younger people to use the cologne and he will hire Justin Bieber as their new spokesperson to achieve this. 参考思路 1. 因果关系：代言人和销量上升。也许香水本身的定位就是中年男性，比如味道或者价位，换代言人并不会产生多少改变。销量不变可能是其他很多原因造成的，比如economic recession等等。 2. 时地全等：过去用代言人这招管用，不代表将来还是有用，也许其他很多竞争者都用这招了，last two years销量不变不代表以后销量也不变。 3. 无根据假设：歌星一定能吸引年轻人。没有证据支持这种说法，年轻的明星并不代表就能吸引到年轻男人，比如可能一般男生关注明星比较少，或者在男生中其实运动员更受欢迎，换了还不如不换。

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